Effective planning of infrastructure needs, asset allocation and other focused efforts require the careful consideration of future demographic changes to the region, including out-migration/in-migration, natural occurrences, economic forecasting effects on regional populations, and retirement decreases in their populations. As seen in the actual numbers, these are very small, rural areas, so moderate loss of population is quantified into significant percentage of population loss. The West Central Texas Economic Development District is fortunate to utilize commissioned studies by Abilene Christian University’s Center for Business and Economic Research. The studies, funded by Workforce Solutions of West Central Texas, studied the demographic, employment and economic development characteristics within each of the individual counties of the region.
The region as a whole has demonstrated relative consistency in population over the past decade, with moderate growth attributable largely to growth in urban centers within the region. The most populated area of the West Central Texas region is the City of Abilene in Taylor County. According to the US Census Bureau, the growth rate over the past 40 years has more than doubled in the city. In contrast, the population growth rate for the state has more than tripled during the same time period.
While Taylor County is projected to grow 2.89% (3,921) from 2015 to 2025, the region as a whole is projected to remain relatively flat, with growth of only 1,502 (+0.46%) new residents. By contrast, the state of Texas is projected to grow 8.23% and the nation is projected to grow 4.00% during the same period. (All 2015 to 2025 population estimates source, Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. (EMSI), www.economicmodeling.com)
The region as a whole has demonstrated relative consistency in population over the past decade, with moderate growth attributable largely to growth in urban centers within the region. The most populated area of the West Central Texas region is the City of Abilene in Taylor County. According to the US Census Bureau, the growth rate over the past 40 years has more than doubled in the city. In contrast, the population growth rate for the state has more than tripled during the same time period.
While Taylor County is projected to grow 2.89% (3,921) from 2015 to 2025, the region as a whole is projected to remain relatively flat, with growth of only 1,502 (+0.46%) new residents. By contrast, the state of Texas is projected to grow 8.23% and the nation is projected to grow 4.00% during the same period. (All 2015 to 2025 population estimates source, Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. (EMSI), www.economicmodeling.com)
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County by county, long-term projections indicate a region with multiple growth narratives. The region is projected to grow 6.71% as a whole from 2020 to 2050. Comanche, Knox, Mitchell, Nolan, Runnels, Scurry, Stephens and Taylor counties are expected to experience growth that outpaces the region. Meanwhile, eight counties including Brown, Callahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Kent, and Stonewall are projected to grow 3% or less during the 30 year period, with two counties (Brown and Stonewall) experiencing a contraction in population.
County |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
% Change |
Brown |
39,167 |
36,626 |
39,250 |
38,850 |
-0.82% |
Callahan |
13,680 |
13,988 |
13,885 |
13,742 |
1.80% |
Comanche |
8,900 |
8,968 |
8,969 |
9,063 |
9.27% |
Eastland |
19,019 |
19,258 |
19,260 |
19,338 |
1.65% |
Fisher |
4,025 |
4,099 |
4,118 |
4,150 |
3.01% |
Haskell |
5,880 |
5,943 |
5,950 |
5,972 |
1.54% |
Jones |
20,662 |
20,995 |
21.016 |
20,982 |
1.53% |
Kent |
819 |
865 |
843 |
825 |
0.73 |
Knox |
3,884 |
4,145 |
4,410 |
4,680 |
17.01% |
Mitchell |
9,775 |
10,141 |
10,389 |
10,713 |
8.76% |
Nolan |
16,024 |
16,836 |
17,484 |
18,108 |
11.51% |
Runnels |
10,807 |
11,179 |
11,400 |
11,764 |
8.13% |
Scurry |
18,113 |
19,234 |
20,193 |
21,136 |
14.30% |
Shackelford |
3,548 |
3,676 |
3,725 |
3,802 |
6.68% |
Stephens |
9,892 |
10,238 |
10,552 |
10,847 |
8.80% |
Stonewall |
1,504 |
1,538 |
1,511 |
1,470 |
-2.31% |
Taylor |
140,946 |
146,962 |
151,200 |
154,468 |
8.75% |
Throckmorton |
1,660 |
1,669 |
1,631 |
1,590 |
4.40% |
Region |
342,621 |
351,147 |
360,984 |
367,278 |
6.71% |
With regards to Race and Ethnicity, West Central Texas is reflective of the general demographics of the surrounding area. The region is projected to experience a drop in the majority White, Non-Hispanic population of -3.66% from 2015 to 2025. During the same period, the Hispanic populations are expected to realize the most significant gains, with the number classified as White, Hispanic increasing 6,295 (8.33%) and those classified as Black, Hispanic increasing 309 (13.69%). While Hispanic groups are projected to experience significant gains in the region, as a percentage of the population they still trail Texas in which Hispanics accounted for 38.21% in 2015 (Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. (EMSI))
Other groups expected to realize significant percentage gains over the 10 year period include Asian, Non-Hispanic (591, 17.28%) and individuals classified as Two or More Races, Non-Hispanic (762, 15.73%). These projections hold true to population shifts from 2000 to 2010 that saw the most significant percentage growth in the region in the Black, American Indian, and Asian populations. It is reflective of a growing, diverse community forming in the region.
Other groups expected to realize significant percentage gains over the 10 year period include Asian, Non-Hispanic (591, 17.28%) and individuals classified as Two or More Races, Non-Hispanic (762, 15.73%). These projections hold true to population shifts from 2000 to 2010 that saw the most significant percentage growth in the region in the Black, American Indian, and Asian populations. It is reflective of a growing, diverse community forming in the region.
Race/Ethnicity |
2015 Population |
2025 Population |
Change |
% Change |
2015 % of Cohort |
White, Non-Hispanic |
219,024 |
211,025 |
-7,999 |
-3.66% |
66.64% |
White, Hispanic |
75,540 |
81,835 |
6,295 |
8.33% |
22.98% |
Black, Non-Hispanic |
17,640 |
18,269 |
629 |
3.57% |
5.37% |
Two or More Races, Non-Hispanic |
4,844 |
5,606 |
762 |
15.73% |
1.47% |
Asian, Non-Hispanic |
3,421 |
4,012 |
591 |
17.28% |
1.04% |
Black, Hispanic |
2,257 |
2,566 |
309 |
13.69% |
0.69% |
Analysis of projected shifts in age cohorts from 2015 to 2025 indicates some moderate growth in younger cohorts. While the <5 years cohort is projected to experience strong growth of 6.17%, the 2025 cohorts for 5-9 year olds, 10-14 year olds (the same as <5 cohort from 2015), and the 15-19 year olds (the same as the 5-9 cohort from 2015) all project to be weak at 2.69%, -1.80%, and 3.22% respectively. This decline in the youth population is consistent with a lower reported fertility rate for the Abilene MSA of 69.2, versus a statewide rate of 69.8 (Source: Texas Department of Health Services). Despite the projected slowdown in the younger age cohort growth, however, the region still boasts an extremely favorable median age of 31.6 (represented by Abilene) versus a national median age of 37.2 (sources. US Census)
Age |
2015 Population |
2025 Population |
Change |
% Change |
% 2015 Cohort |
<5 years |
21,309 |
22,623 |
1,314 |
6.17% |
6.48% |
5-9 |
21,495 |
22,073 |
578 |
2.69% |
6.54% |
10-14 |
21,326 |
20,943 |
-383 |
-1.80% |
6.49% |
15-19 |
22,699 |
23,431 |
732 |
3.22% |
6.91% |
20-24 |
26,888 |
23,289 |
-3,599 |
13.39% |
8.18% |
25-29 |
21,970 |
19,669 |
-2,301 |
10.47% |
6.68% |
30-34 |
21,433 |
21,792 |
359 |
1.67% |
6.52% |
35-39 |
18,494 |
20,637 |
2,143 |
11.59% |
5.63% |
40-44 |
18,088 |
20,831 |
2,743 |
15.16% |
5.50% |
45-49 |
17,892 |
17,569 |
-323 |
-1.81% |
5.44% |
50-54 |
21,083 |
16,835 |
-4,248 |
-20.15% |
6.41% |
55-59 |
21,351 |
16,864 |
-4,487 |
-21.02% |
6.50% |
60-64 |
18,970 |
19,849 |
879 |
4.63% |
5.77% |
65-69 |
16,799 |
19,665 |
2,866 |
17.06% |
5.11% |
70-74 |
13,732 |
16,253 |
2,521 |
18.36% |
4.18% |
75-79 |
10,421 |
12,522 |
2,101 |
20.16% |
3.17% |
80-84 |
7,578 |
8,328 |
750 |
9.90% |
2.31% |
85+ |
7,134 |
6,990 |
-144 |
-2.02% |
2.17% |
Total |
328,662 |
330,164 |
1,502 |
0.46% |
100% |